As Super Tuesday approaches and Virginians prepare to cast their ballots in the Republican primary on March 5, Donald Trump has a lead of 75% among self-reported Republicans as their first choice to be the nominee for president in November, followed by 15% for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and 8% for someone else, according to a new poll released Friday by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College.
Looking ahead to the general election in November and likely matchups for the presidency, President Joe Biden maintains a 4-point lead over Trump (47% to 43%). If Haley were to be the Republican nominee, she would have a 9-point lead over Biden (49% to 40%), the poll found.
Virginians’ approval of Gov. Glenn Youngkin remains about the same as in the IPOR poll from May 2023, with 53% of Virginians approving of the way he is handling his job. Over that same period, Biden’s job approval has decreased, down 9 points from an approval rating of 42% in May to 33% in this poll. In November, Biden’s approval was at 37%, and this poll marks the first time that more than 60% of Virginians disapprove of the way Biden is handling the presidency.
“Ahead of Super Tuesday, it’s not too surprising that former president Trump is likely to win the commonwealth’s Republican primary,” said David Taylor, director of IPOR and professor of mathematics at Roanoke College.
“Among Virginians that self-reported a likelihood of voting on Tuesday, Trump holds an eight-point lead over former ambassador Nikki Haley, but based on what we’ve seen in the past, I would expect actual voter turnout to be lower than what our poll found. Trump has a 62-point lead among Republicans and Haley has a 10-point lead among independents, so while a Trump victory is the likely outcome, Haley will capture several of Virginia’s 48 delegates up for grabs.”
The percentage of Virginians who believe things are generally on the wrong track in Virginia and the nation remains stable from the previous IPOR poll, with 42% reporting that things are on the wrong track in Virginia and 73% saying that’s the case in the nation.
As for the legislatures at the national and state levels, 16% of Virginians approve of the way Congress is handling its job (up 2 points since November, but within the margin of error), while 49% approve of the way the Virginia General Assembly is doing its job. The approval rating for the General Assembly increased 4 points since November and is within the error margin of its approval one year ago (48%).
As to future dynamics, Taylor, the IPOR director, said that Virginia is generally considered either a swing state or one that leans a bit to the left.
“Biden’s favorability rating of 35% now compared to 37% four years ago is relatively unchanged, but his unfavorability rating (61% now compared to 37% in 2020) has nearly doubled and nearly matches Trump’s favorable and unfavorable ratings in 2020 and in this 2024 poll,” Taylor said.
“Despite Virginia Republicans’ strong desire for Trump to be the party’s candidate in this November’s general election, the Roanoke College Poll found that Trump trails Biden by four points in November’s race but Haley would lead Biden by nine points if she were the nominee.”
The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College interviewed 705 adult residents of Virginia between Feb. 11 and 19 in a survey of public attitudes related to state and national politics, opinions on public figures and organizations, and election thoughts for Super Tuesday and the November general election. The survey has a weighted margin of error of 4.62%.
