Five months before the presidential election, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump for the first time are tied in a head-to-head matchup in Virginia, while Biden holds a 2-point lead when other candidates are included, according to a new poll released Wednesday by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College.
The survey found that 42% of voters would back Biden and 42% Trump in a head-to-head matchup, while Biden would lead Trump 40% to 38% with third-party candidates in the race.
The new data shows the best polling to date for Trump, who lost in the commonwealth in the 2016 and 2020 elections (49.7% to 44.4% versus Hillary Clinton, and 54.1% to 44% versus Biden). In a previous IPOR poll released March 1, Biden maintained a 4-point lead (47% to 43%) over Trump — but that was one week before former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Trump’s sole primary challenger at the time, suspended her campaign, essentially handing the nomination to the former president.
Although only 2% of likely voters say they are undecided at this early point in the campaign, another 14% say they would vote for a candidate other than Biden or Trump in a two-way race, and 20% said the same if it were a five-way race.
Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polled at 8%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 3% and independent Cornel West at 1%.
“These results suggest that Virginia could be ‘in play’ in November,” Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College, said in a news release announcing the poll results.
“But five months is an eternity in politics. This tie or two-point lead seems dramatic, but they are within the margin of error of the results of the February 2024 and November 2023 Roanoke College Polls. Still, it seems that Trump is narrowing Biden’s lead, which has all but disappeared.”
Both candidates are polling very well among their partisan supporters, and there is a miniscule number of undecided voters before the parties officially nominate the candidates, Wilson added. “This suggests that those voters who say they will vote for another candidate will possibly swing the election one way or the other. Do they vote for a third-party candidate? Do they move to one of the major party candidates? Or do they decide to abstain from voting?”
Favorability ratings for federal officials and institutions generally continue in negative numbers with Trump (36% favorable / 57% unfavorable) and Biden (36% favorable / 58% unfavorable) leading in the wrong way.
The U.S. Supreme Court fares slightly better, with 44% favorable and 48% unfavorable, the poll found. U.S. Senator Tim Kaine, D-Va., who is seeking a third term this year, breaks the underwater trend with 43% favorable and 39% unfavorable, but those ratings are lower than the last time he ran for reelection.
Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s ratings remain steady (49% favorable / 40% unfavorable), continuing a long-term trend of Virginians holding more positive views of governors Democrat or Republican, liberal or conservative.
“While Biden and Trump are viewed negatively about equally, it is not good news for Biden that Trump’s years as president are seen more positively and that the economy (which other polls show as a weakness for Biden) is by far the most important issue,” Wilson said.
The poll also shows that Virginia voters are more likely to view the Trump years as mostly good for the country (44% mostly good, 33% mostly bad), and they see the Biden years more negatively (25% mostly good, 47% mostly bad).
Republicans are very enthusiastic about the Trump years (87% see them as mostly good), while half of Democrats think of Biden’s years as mostly good. About equal numbers of likely voters think Biden and Trump mostly tell the truth and mean what they say (37% for each) rather than just saying things to get elected (59% for Biden, 58% for Trump).
Two-thirds (64%) of likely voters are very certain of their vote choice, and another 28% are somewhat certain, the poll found. Just over half (52%) are very enthusiastic about voting, and another 27% are somewhat enthusiastic. Still, 1 in 5 are either not too enthusiastic (14%) or not at all enthusiastic (7%).
The economy dominates among the most important issues, cited by 44% of respondents. Immigration (14%) and abortion (13%) were chosen more frequently than foreign affairs (8%) and crime (5%).
A majority of likely voters (63%) think that Biden legitimately won the election in 2020, but one-third (34%) say he won because of election irregularities.
Nearly three-fourths (73%) believe that Trump legitimately won in 2016, but 21% think he won because he colluded with Russians. As expected, partisans see that election differently, with 94% of Republicans saying Trump won legitimately compared to 53% of Democrats, while 91% of Democrats say Biden won legitimately, while only 29% of Republicans agree.
“While it isn’t anything ‘new,’ we continue to see evidence that Democrats are from Mercury and Republicans are from Neptune, or Pluto if you prefer the demoted planet, or vice versa,” Wilson said.
“They view American politics through very different lenses or, perhaps, from different planets. It’s difficult to find consensus on anything when two-thirds (67%) of Republicans think Biden’s win was illegitimate and 41% of Democrats think Trump’s victory was illegitimate.”
Sen. Louise Lucas, D-Portsmouth and the Senate president pro tempore, said in an email that Biden defeated Trump by 10 points in 2020 in Virginia, and she said that Trump’s anti-abortion agenda cost Republicans the state legislature last year.
“Trump is toxic and has no campaign presence in Virginia, while the Biden campaign is working to win every vote across the commonwealth. He’s welcome to waste his time campaigning here,” Lucas said.
A spokesman for Del. Todd Gilbert, R-Shenandoah County and the House minority leader, did not respond to a text message seeking comment on Wednesday.
The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College interviewed 711 adult residents of Virginia between May 12 and May 21. Interviews were conducted in English, and cellphones constituted 63% of the completed phone interviews. The survey has a weighted margin of error of 4.24% at a confidence level of 95%.
