For more on the June 18 primary, see our voter guide.
Less than two weeks ahead of the June 18 primary elections, a new poll shows state Sen. John McGuire, R-Goochland County, with a 10-point lead over Rep. Bob Good, R-Campbell County, in the heated GOP primary in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District.
The survey, which was commissioned by the Virginia Faith and Freedom Coalition and released Wednesday, found that if the election were held today, about 41% of Republican voters said that they would back McGuire, who has mounted a vicious intraparty challenge against Good, the incumbent, who would get 31% of the vote. The remaining 29% of voters said they were undecided.
The poll also said that McGuire’s favorable rating was 37% and unfavorable rating was 26%, with 30% unsure. This was compared to an underwater rating of Good of 39% unfavorable to 31% favorable, and 27% unsure.
The poll was conducted for VAFFC by WPA Intelligence from June 2-4. The 300 respondents were half male and half female, with a cross-section of ages, education and residency in the congressional district. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6%.
“This poll seems to be more or less in line with what the previous polling also had,” said David Richards, a political analyst and chair of the political science program at the University of Lynchburg, referring to an internal poll commissioned by McGuire’s campaign last month that showed the state senator with a 14-point lead.
“It looks like trouble for Bob Good’s renomination, but I’m still confident that Good will be very difficult to beat in June,” Richards said. “But I would imagine this is not welcome news for Good. I am looking at the one-third of voters who are still unsure about either candidate — they could decide the primary.”
Good spokeswoman Diane Shores did not comment on the Virginia Faith and Freedom Coalition poll. But she pointed toward a survey by Rick Shaftan of Neighborhood Research and Media, a pollster from North Carolina, which was commissioned by the Champions for Freedom PAC. According to that poll, Good holds a 39% to 30% lead over McGuire.
The nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project, which tracks spending in elections, reports that all of the PAC’s $82,699 spending during the 5th District primary has been pro-Good or anti-McGuire.
“After taking a hit Thursday last week, Good began to recover as soon as the Trump verdict came down,” Shaftan said in an email, referring to former President Donald Trump’s endorsement of McGuire, which was followed by the former president’s conviction by a jury in New York City of 34 counts of falsifying business records to influence the outcome of the 2016 election.
For the Champions for Freedom PAC poll, Neighborhood Research and Media interviewed 301 likely voters in the district by phone last week. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.8%.
