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Can we all just calm down a bit?
Apparently not.
Lynchburg City Council member Marty Misjuns, a Republican, took to Facebook on Friday to offer his opinion on the judge’s order halting the state’s purge of “non-citizens” from the voter rolls: “The Governor of Virginia should not comply, and the new Congress should Impeach and remove this federal judge.”
The head of the Advancement Project, a D.C.-based liberal voting rights group, declared: “Virginia’s desperate attempt to undermine the will of the people and sow distrust in our elections was foiled.”
Let’s try to bring some perspective to this firestorm.
This is a big deal, but it may be a bigger deal politically than it is in practice. Let’s look at some facts, which fall on both sides of the political argument.
1. It’s not just noncitizens who have been purged.
Republicans are saying that these are “self-identified non-citizens.” That’s true, but it’s also clear that some of these people are actual U.S. citizens who simply checked the wrong box. In just a few hours on Friday afternoon, Cardinal reporters were able to find several such people — two agreed to talk to us in this story. One was a voter who who was looking forward to voting on election day and told the Cardinal, “I’m a Republican 100%, Donald Trump.” If we, in a single afternoon, looking in just two jurisdictions, can find American citizens who just made a simple mistake on a DMV form and got purged, how many more might be out there? The two people we found were already aware of the problem and had gotten it fixed, but how many more people will find out on Election Day? That brings us to this:
2. There’s a remedy if you get accidentally purged.
Virginia now has same-day voter registration. If someone shows up at the polls and they’re not on the books, they can register then. I’m sure finding out you’ve been purged would be traumatic, and it shouldn’t happen, but there also seems to be a pretty simple fix. These votes get counted as “provisional ballots,” which requires post-election verification, so this has the potential to delay results if there are a lot of them.
3. The number of people we’re talking about here is small and likely inconsequential.
I don’t mean to minimize the philosophical points at play here — purging legitimate voters is a bad thing, keeping people on the rolls who shouldn’t be there is a bad thing, too. However, let’s just look at the numbers. The exact number of people purged from the rolls is unclear but appears to be more than 1,500 or maybe more than 1,600.
Let’s go with the higher number. For the sake of argument, let’s assume that all 1,600 really are noncitizens — although we’ve easily demonstrated that’s not the case. Let’s also assume that all of them vote — even though we know that never happens. Four years ago, Virginia had a record turnout for the modern era, and even 25% of the state’s registered voters didn’t bother. Finally, let’s assume that all these people voted the same way — which seems highly unlikely since the first purged voter we found was a Republican. The second didn’t say how he voted.
When was the last time we had a presidential election in Virginia decided by 1,600 votes? The year 1860 — when John Bell of the Constitutional Union Party defeated John Breckinridge of the Southern Democratic Party by 156 votes in an election won nationally by Abraham Lincoln. The state’s total electorate that year was 166,891 voters, or fewer votes than in today’s Henrico County.
When was the last time we had a U.S. Senate race that close? Apparently never. The State Board of Elections’ database goes back to 1924, and I haven’t found any records for the decade before that in which we were electing senators rather than appointing them. However, Virginia was essentially a one-party state then, so I doubt there were any close elections. In that 1924-forward time period, the closest U.S. Senate race in the state was in 1978, when Republican John Warner defeated Democrat Andrew Miller by 4,721 votes.
Let’s look at other types of races. Governor’s races? We’ve never had one that close since we started electing governors in 1851. In modern times, the 1989 contest comes close: Democrat Doug Wilder defeated Republican Marshall Coleman that year by 6,741. In the 1863 election during the Civil War when Democrat William “Extra Billy” Smith defeated fellow Democrat Thomas Flournoy by 5,160 votes.
Some other statewide races have been that close, though. Both the 2005 and 2013 attorney general’s races went to recounts. Republican Bob McDonnell won the former by 323 votes, Democrat Mark Herring won the latter by 165 votes.
I realize the ideal number here on both sides is zero — zero noncitizens on the rolls, zero legitimate voters purged. The philosophical points both sides are arguing are enormous, but, as a practical matter, we’re talking about a number that’s quite small.
That raises a question: Why is there so much commotion over such a small number of people? Again, the principles involved here are big and fundamental ones, things that are definitely worth arguing over. However, let me offer what might seem a cynical answer: This is good politics for both sides.
Poll after poll shows Republicans are more concerned than Democrats about immigration and election security; Democrats are more comfortable with less restrictive laws on both. This is a fight that lets each side energize its base. Donald Trump is now coming to Salem on Nov. 2, even though recent polls don’t show Virginia to be close. In some ways, he’d be better off spending the Saturday before the election in Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. However, by coming to Virginia he can imply that Democrats are packing voter rolls with people who shouldn’t be allowed to vote and lay the groundwork for whatever post-election challenges he wants to make if things don’t go his way.
I see a great irony in all of this: Conservatives, who are the most distrustful of government, are the ones arguing that we should trust government to get these purges right. Liberals, who often see government as the solution to problems, are the ones saying we shouldn’t trust government this time.
So which is the greater worry — that some lawful voters will get purged or some who shouldn’t be on the rolls get included? Earlier this week, we ran opposing commentaries on that subject from state Sen. Travis Hackworth, R-Tazewell County, and state Sen. Ghazala Hasmhi, D-Chesterfield County. You can read those and then let us know what you think.
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