Roanoke College Poll: Harris leads in Virginia by 10 percentage points

Kamala Harris has expanded her lead in Virginia to 10 percentage points, according to a new poll by Roanoke College.

This raises anew the question of why Donald Trump is spending a valuable Saturday before the election in Salem and not, say, Scranton or Saginaw.

The poll also shows Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., with an 11 percentage point lead over Republican challenger Hung Cao.

The specific numbers:

Kamala Harris 51%
Donald Trump 41%
Cornel West 2%
Chase Oliver 2%
Others 2%
Undecided 2%
Jill Stein 1%

In the Senate race:

Tim Kaine 51%
Hung Cao 40%
Undecided 6%
Refused 2%
Others 1%

The margin for Harris is larger than what we’ve seen in other published polls in Virginia lately. Among “quality” polls — those with a high rating from the data website FiveThirtyEight — Harris has a lead of six to eight percentage points. However, these numbers are in line with actual election results from years past. Four years ago, Virginia went 54.1% for Joe Biden and 44.0% for Trump. For those of us following every wiggle and jiggle of the polling trends, these numbers are the least interesting ones in the poll. Here are the more interesting ones.

Virginians are feeling better about the state of the country

One of the biggest changes in this poll, from the previous Roanoke College poll in August, is on the traditional question: “Do you think things in the country are generally going in the right direction or do you think things have gotten off on the wrong track?”

In more than a decade of polling, Roanoke College has always found that most respondents think we’re on the wrong track, regardless of who is in power. In August, the poll found 71% thought we were on the wrong track. For more than two years running, all but a few versions of the poll found 70%-plus saying we were on the wrong track. This latest poll, though, shows the number thinking we’re on the wrong track has dropped to 64%. That’s the lowest it’s been since September 2021, during Joe Biden’s first year in office. If voters are feeling better about the state of the country, or at least less bad about it, that’s got to help the party in power — in this case Vice President Harris. That alone may help explain why, in August, she had a lead of three percentage points in the poll and now has a lead of 10.

Virginians are also feeling pretty good about the state of the state

While voters are consistently unhappy about the state of the country, they often feel pretty good about Virginia. This poll finds them pretty optimistic about the state — with a caveat. In August, 51% thought Virginia was on the right track, 46% on the wrong track. This poll shows 46% say right track, 35% say wrong track. That’s a big change in margins — from five percentage points to eleven. However, it’s also a drop in the number of those identifying a particular track — the number who are simply unsure has soared from 3% to 17%.

Overall, that margin may also be helping Harris — voters aren’t in a particularly bad mood about Virginia. Looking ahead to next year’s governor’s race (something the poll doesn’t do but I will), these numbers, which may be helpful to Democrats now, will be useful for Republicans then. If voters are happy with the direction of the state, that’s an argument for keeping the same party in the governor’s mansion.

Virginians are feeling better about Joe Biden

They still disapprove of his handling of the presidency, just not by as much as they once did. That also is likely helping Harris. In August, 62% disapproved of his job performance, only 35% approved. That was the highest disapproval rating of his presidency. The October poll finds the approval rate hasn’t really changed — 38%, a shift within the margin of error. But his disapproval rating has dropped from 62% to 52%. That’s the lowest it’s been since the first year of his presidency.

I have to wonder if this is simply because, now that he’s not a candidate, Biden has kept a much lower profile. Out of sight, out of mind, so to speak. This poll was also taken before Biden’s “garbage” comment, which has inflamed Republicans. I was at a Republican campaign event in Franklin County on Wednesday, and the line was referenced multiple times. We’ll see if this fits into the same category as the late campaign gaffe in 1884 when a supporter for Republican James Blaine accused Democrats of being the party of “rum, Romanism and rebellion.” That line outraged many Catholic voters and may have cost Blaine the state of New York — and the presidency. Grover Cleveland won 48.8% to 48.3%.

Virginians just don’t like Trump

Here’s the problem for Republicans: More people think unfavorably about Trump than favorably. In this poll, 54% have an unfavorable impression of him, only 38% favorable. By contrast, opinions on Harris are almost evenly matched: 46% unfavorable, 45% favorable. That gives her the advantage.

Trump leads on the economy, but not by much

Like other polls this fall, this one finds the economy is by far and away the top issue voters have on their minds:

Economy 43%
Abortion 20%
Immigration 12%
Something else 12%
Foreign affairs 8%
Crime 3%
Unsure/refused 3%

If people are fretting about the economy, that’s rarely good for the party in power. That should be helping Trump “bigly,” to use his phrase. It’s not, though. When asked which candidate voters trust most to handle the economy, 49% say Trump, 46% say Harris. That’s not much of an advantage, and it’s within the margin of error. Without more data, we can only speculate as to why Trump isn’t doing better on this question. Have Harris’ warnings that Trump’s proposed tariffs would drive up prices for consumers hit home? We don’t know. We just know Trump is not capitalizing on an issue that should be an easy one for Republicans this year.

Meanwhile, on abortion, the second biggest issue, Harris has a big advantage: 57% to 36%. Republicans who were thrilled by the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision overturning a national right to an abortion may come to regret the political consequences.

Interestingly, on immigration, poll respondents are tied — 48% give each candidate the advantage. This will come as a great surprise to the Republicans I mingled with this week in Franklin County; the dangers of lax border security and unchecked immigration were a hot topic there. However, I suspect if I went to a Democratic event in Fairfax County, the topic might be the dangers of Trump’s mass deportation plan.

The bottom line here: On two issues that Trump believes should be his — the economy and immigration — Virginia voters are saying, “Nah, not really.”

Virginians don’t think Trump understands them

Here’s a question I haven’t seen other polls ask: “In general, do you think that Donald Trump/Kamala Harris understands and cares about people like you?”

For Trump, 59% of respondents said no, 37% said yes.

For Harris, 48% said no, 46% said yes.

Harris isn’t doing great on that question, but Trump is doing poorly.

That’s another reason why this poll shows Harris with a double-digit lead in Virginia. Finally:

Independents break for Harris

Perhaps the most important numbers in any poll are what independents are thinking. Democrats and Republicans are pretty predictable; independents aren’t.

Each poll asks things somewhat differently, so it’s hard to make too many comparisons from one to another. Still, I’ll venture this one: Every poll I’ve seen shows that the economy is a top concern for Republicans and independents, but not Democrats. Put another way, independents this year seem to be thinking more like Republicans. That’s an opportunity for Republicans. The Roanoke College poll suggests they’re not benefitting from that advantage.

On both the economy and immigration, independents in this poll say that Trump would do a better job than Harris — 50% to 40% on the economy, 51% to 45% on immigration. However, those feelings don’t appear to be turning into votes. The poll finds that independents are backing Harris 49% to 36%.

Here might be why: Independents think Harris understands them better than Trump, 37% to 30%.

If these numbers prove true on Election Night, this will make for a lot of soul-searching among Republicans: When they had a natural advantage on the issues among independents, why couldn’t they convert that into votes? Nothing in this poll dislodges the impression I’ve had all along (and many of the numbers confirm my thinking): This year should be a Republican year, based on voters’ concerns about the economy. However, Republicans have endangered what could have been a sure thing by nominating Trump. If Republicans had nominated Nikki Haley, I bet we’d be having a very different conversation.

Here’s one danger for Harris: Independents aren’t nearly as enthusiastic about this election as Democrats and Republicans are. Among the partisans, 74% in both parties say they’re excited about voting; only 60% of independents are. Harris needs to motivate those less-than-enthusiastic independents who back her to actually get to the polls.

Now, go vote

The poll also found that 40% of those surveyed have already voted. For anyone who hasn’t, you still have a chance to either validate these results or render them completely wrong. Saturday is the last day of in-person early voting. Then, on Tuesday, polls are open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. If you’re still undecided, particularly about the more than 500 local candidates on ballots across Southwest and Southside, you can check them out in our Voter Guide. If you’re one of those candidates and still haven’t answered the questionnaire we sent you, you still can — let us know at elections@cardinalnews.org.

Join me for a Zoom

Polls are predictive, but actual election results are the real thing. On Thursday, Nov. 7, when we have those results in hand, I’ll host a Zoom call for Cardinal News members where I’ll talk about the results and take your questions. If you’re not a Cardinal News member, here’s how to become one. See you there!

Want more political news and analysis?

I write a weekly political newsletter, West of the Capital, which goes out Friday afternoons. This week I’ll take a final look at the early voting trends and tell you which candidate our readers are most interested in, based on searches in our Voter Guide. Hint: It’s a local candidate.

You can sign up for that or any of our free newsletters below: