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Almost every locality in Southwest and Southside Virginia will continue to lose population over the next 25 years, with many communities expected to shed one-quarter or more of their population.
Buchanan County is projected to shrink faster than any other place in the state, with its population dropping by 48% by 2050.
Four more localities, three in Southwest and one in Southside, are projected to lose more than 30% of their population in that time: Dickenson County and Sussex County at -31%, Russell County and Wise County at -30%.
These grim numbers come from the latest population projections from the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia.
You may be wondering how these projections square with data that in recent years has shown more people moving into rural areas than moving out. Here’s how: The influx of people moving in is not enough to make up for aging populations, where more people are dying than coming into the community, either through birth or household moves. In more colorful language, there are more hearses headed to the cemetery than there are moving vans coming in — and there is no realistic prospect of enough moving vans to make up the difference. For Buchanan County just to stay even, it would need an additional 9,168 people to move in over the next 25 years.
Three big forces are at work here: An aging population is dying off. A decline in birth rates, coupled with a decline in immigration, means there are fewer new residents to replace those who die. Overall, Virginia is projected to still gain population but at a slower rate than before (down from 24% in the first quarter of the century versus 17% in the next quarter) — and virtually all of that population growth will take place on the eastern side of the state since most of Southwest and Southside will be losing population. The few exceptions to those regional trends will be slight, and at the geographical edges — population growth in Southwest will pick up once you cross north of the New River Valley into Montgomery County. In Southside, it turns positive around Lynchburg in Appomattox, Bedford and Campbell counties.
In some ways, these new projections paint a familiar picture of Virginia: population growth in the urban corridor, population declines across much of rural Virginia. On closer inspection, though, we see some important changes to those patterns.
Population growth in Northern Virginia will slow down
The region will keep gaining population but at a slower rate. Demographer Hamilton Lombard cites two reasons: a decline in immigration and a decline in home construction.
Much of Northern Virginia’s population growth in recent years has been fueled by immigration. “What immigration levels will be for the rest of the 2020s is less certain but it is unlikely to again reach the levels seen in recent years, which means immigration gateway metros, such as Northern Virginia, may find it more difficult to grow,” he said in an email.
A slowdown in home construction will also slow population growth, he said. “The lack of new home construction in Northern Virginia is one of a number of reasons why it has struggled to grow in recent years. Over the last few years the number of new homes permitted by localities within the Northern Virginia Planning District Commission for construction has been about a third the average between 1980 and 2010. With the region’s population aging and household sizes shrinking, home construction levels in Northern Virginia are barely enough to house its current population.”
When we talk about population growth rates slowing down, perspective is the key. Loudoun County is projected to have the fastest population growth rate over the next quarter century — a staggering 65%. However, that’s down from the 159% growth rate it had from 2000 to 2024.
Even with a slowdown in population growth, Northern Virginia is big enough that it’s still expected to account for three-fifths of the state’s population growth over the next quarter century, Lombard said.
Hampton Roads’ population growth will lag well behind other metros
Hampton Roads — hemmed in by water and a relatively slow-growing economy — has seen its population growth lag behind other Virginia metros for decades now. In the first quarter of this century, it grew by 12%, about one-quarter that of Northern Virginia and almost one-third that of the Richmond metro. These projections show its population growth slowing to 9%, which would put it at the same speed as Lynchburg.
Some contrasts:
From 2000 to 2024, the population in Northern Virginia grew by 45%; it’s now projected to slow to 30%.
The Richmond metro grew by 32% and is now projected to slow to 23%.
Hampton Roads, which had been 12%, is now projected to fall into single digits.
Population growth and economic growth are not exactly the same thing, but they do overlap: The more economically successful a region is, the more people who want to move in.
Population decline will accelerate in Southwest and Southside
I don’t mean to sound morbid, but population changes are determined by just two things: births versus deaths and people moving in versus people moving out. The populations in Southwest and Southside are old enough that in the coming decades, they will reach a tipping point, and populations will shrink faster and faster as more people die.
Buchanan County has already seen its population shrink by 29% from 2020 to 2024. From then until 2050, the rate is expected to accelerate to 48%. Add all that together, and here’s what Weldon Cooper sees: In 2000, Buchanan County was home to 26,978 people. Today, that figure is 19,056. But by 2050, it’s projected to be just 9,888.
Buchanan’s population peaked in 1980 at 37,989. That means within a single lifetime, the county will have lost about three-fourths of its population.
Buchanan County is an extreme case, but the overall trends are the same.
Wise County, the most populous of the state’s westernmost counties, will see its population decline speed up from 18% in the first quarter of the century to 30% in the second quarter. At one time (that would be 1950), Wise had a population of 56,336. Today it’s about 34,820. Now it’s looking at 24,357 by 2050.
Only four localities will see population growth rates increase
They are Manassas, Newport News, Prince George County and Staunton. In each, the increase in the population growth rate is expected to be slight. Whether this means anything is hard to say. If those projections come to pass, it certainly means something in those localities, but they’re so scattered across the state, it’s hard to discern some important trend.
Accomack County, which is projected to keep losing population, is forecasted to see that decline slow.
Six localities are projected to have their population growth rates remain at the same level: Alexandria, Hopewell, Petersburg, Richmond, Salem and Virginia Beach. The same principle applies. Martinsville, which is projected to keep losing population, is predicted to keep losing at the same rate.
While there may be local factors at play with all these, the big picture is that communities everywhere else will either see their population growth rate slow or population decline accelerate.
Those are enough numbers and trends for one day. Play around with the interactive map to see what your community will do. Unless there’s a zombie attack that requires immediate commentary (zombies would not count in these population projections, by the way), I’ll be back on Wednesday to slice and dice these numbers in other ways.
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