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Today we shall peer into the future, not with a crystal ball but with the latest round of population projections recently issued by the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia.
The big trends we looked at on Tuesday: An aging population and declining birth rates will slow population growth overall, with Southwest and Southside losing population while population growth continues in the eastern part of the state, just at a lower rate than before.
Today, we’ll take a more granular look at some specific places:
1. Population growth in the Roanoke Valley and New River Valley will be slowed by more than half
The state’s population growth, which was 24% between 2020 and 2024, is expected to slow to 17% between now and 2050. That population growth will remain concentrated in Northern Virginia, even though it’s expected to fall from 45% to 30%, along with Winchester metro (55% to 32%), the Charlotteville metro (35% to 22%) and the Richmond metro (32% to 23%).
By contrast, the Roanoke Valley and New River Valley are projected to see relatively little population growth over the next 25 years: 4% in the Roanoke Valley, 5% in the New River Valley. That’s down from 9% over the past quarter century in the Roanoke Valley and 12% in the New River Valley. In other words, both valleys will see their population growth slow by more than half.
2. Population growth in the Lynchburg metro will slow by almost half
The Lynchburg metro, like all others, will see population growth slow down, just not quite as much as others in the western part of the state. Over the first quarter of this century, the Lynchburg metro has grown by 17%. Over the next quarter, it’s projected to grow by 9%. However …
3. The Lynchburg metro will add more people than the Roanoke Valley and New River Valley combined
The Lynchburg metro’s slower growth rate will still be double or more the growth rate in the Roanoke Valley and the New River Valley. Here’s a little-noticed statistic: During the first quarter of this century, the Lynchburg metro added more people than either the Roanoke Valley or the New River Valley — 38,858 in the Lynchburg metro compared to 25,100 in the Roanoke metro and 17,859 in the New River Valley. Over the next quarter century, the Lynchburg metro is projected to add more people than the Roanoke Valley and New River Valley combined. That would be 24,413 in the Lynchburg metro, 13,535 in the Roanoke metro and 9,068 in the New River Valley.
4. Roanoke will eventually move past 100,000, just not right away
Roanoke has flirted with the 100,000 population mark for decades. The city hit 97,110 in 1960, then fell to 92,115 in 1970 as people moved to the suburbs. Buoyed by grabbing part of Roanoke County in a 1976 annexation, the city hit 100,220 in the 1980 census — then saw its numbers fall for two decades, dropping to 94,911 in 2000. The city’s population has been growing, slowly, since then. In the 2020 census, Roanoke just barely made it over the six-figure mark again, with 100,011 residents counted.
The annual population estimates from Weldon Cooper say that Roanoke has now shrunk back to five figures, and these projections foresee a population of 99,086 residents in 2030. Roanoke’s statistical mission is to find 914 more residents than Weldon Cooper’s formulas predict will be in the city come the next census.
Beyond that date, though, Weldon Cooper sees more population growth in the city — with 101,144 by 2040 and 103,345 by 2050.
5. By 2050, Roanoke County will be bigger than Roanoke
The point at which suburban Roanoke County becomes bigger than the city has been a subject of demographic speculation in the Roanoke Valley for as long as I can remember. These projections say it will come in 2050 (or shortly before). The county’s population is currently estimated as 96,497. It’s projected to cross the 100,000 mark in 2040 and then grow to 105,661 in 2050 — which would put it just ahead of the city’s projected 103,345.
6. Franklin County will lose population
In the 1970s, Franklin County was one of the fastest-growing localities in Virginia, its 33.1% population growth fueled by development around Smith Mountain Lake, which filled up in 1966. From then until 2010, Franklin County posted double-digit population gains each decade, with that growth often almost at 20%. Then it all stopped, as migration patterns changed and death caught up with an aging population. The 2020 census saw Franklin County losing population for the first time since the 1950 census measured the 1940s.
Franklin County’s population is currently estimated at 54,127. Weldon Cooper sees that dropping to 50,561 in 2040 before starting to rebound. In all, its population over the next quarter century is projected to shrink by 1%.
7. Loudoun County will add more people in the next 25 years than it has in the previous 25 years
Loudoun County will continue to be the center of the state’s population growth. Although Loudon’s growth rate is projected to fall from 159% over the past quarter century to 65% over the next quarter century, that prior growth fattens its population base so much that it produces these curious numbers: Even with a lower growth rate, Loudoun will still add more people over the next 25 years than it did the last 25. Loudoun added 269,618 from 2000 to 2024; between 2024 and 2050 that number is projected to grow to 283,700.
That was more than any other county in the first part of the century; it will continue to be more than any other county in the next part.
In second place: Prince William County, which is projected to add 209,865 people, followed by Fairfax County at 154,985.
8. The population decline in some rural areas is going to be steep
Rural areas tend to have older populations. As they start to “age out” — and die — in the next quarter century, some populations are going to decline sharply. Here’s a closer look at what that means.
Giles County saw its population decline by 52 people over the past quarter century, a relatively modest number when spread out over 25 years. Functionally, its population stayed flat. Over the next 25 years, though, Giles’ population is projected to drop by 1,126 — a decline of 7%.
Carroll County saw its population decline by 473 over the past quarter century; over the next quarter century, it’s projected to drop by 2,164.
Lee County lost 1,979; now it’s projected to lose 6,032.
9. Some localities will become just a shell of their former selves
Buchanan County is projected to lose nearly half of its population — 48%, to be precise — over the next 25 years. If we take a longer view, though, its population collapse is even more dramatic. In 2000, Buchanan’s population was 26,978; its projected 2050 population of 9,888 is almost one-third of its population at the beginning of this century (and that population was lower than what it had been before that).
Buchanan County’s population drop is easy to understand; it’s directly tied to the demise of the coal industry. Other coal counties also will see big drops, just not on that scale. Others are generally projected to see almost half of their population disappear from 2000 to 2050, with the biggest declines yet to come.
The coal counties aren’t alone, though. In Southside, Brunswick County’s population was 18,419 in 2020; it’s projected to be 10,731 in 2050 — almost half of what it used to be at the start of the century.
10. Some counties that have gained population will soon start losing population
Those same trends — older populations dying off — are projected to turn 13 localities from population gainers to population losers. Those 13 have benefited from new residents moving in, but the rate of net in-migration isn’t expected to keep up with all the deaths. Those 13: the counties of Buckingham, Cumberland, King and Queen, Middlesex, Nelson, Page, Prince Edward, Rappahannock, Richmond, Southampton, Washington and Wythe, plus the city of Buena Vista.
The two most extreme turnarounds are projected to be Southampton and Wythe. Southampton gained 287 people in the first quarter of the century but is now forecast to lose 1,085 in the second quarter. Wythe gained 316 but is now projected to lose 1,828.
If you look at that another way, that’s how many additional people each of those counties needs to have moving in just to keep their populations even. That’s on top of the in-migration that’s already factored into these projections.
There are political implications to many of these numbers. I’ll take a look at those in a future column.
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